Mixture cure modelling in health economic modelling

More and more potentially curative interventions become available in oncology. Thus, a growing proportion of cancer patients might indeed be cured of their disease. For reimbursement decisions, it is common practice to estimate long-term overall survival based on trial data and for instance parametric survival curves. These standard parametric methods, however, do not explicitly take

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Predicting overall survival in clinical practice

Payers are more interested in effectiveness rather than efficacy of novel treatments. In light of health economics, cost-effectiveness is preferred over cost-efficacy. We aim to assess the use of real-world effectiveness evidence along with efficacy data reported in a clinical trial setting, to estimate effectiveness in a real-world setting with the example of overall survival

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Using historical data to inform survival extrapolations

Due to immaturity of survival data in clinical trials at time of health technology assessment, long-term predictions of survival result in uncertainty in decision-making. To predict survival more accurately, we test Bayesian methods using historical data to inform parametric survival predictions based on immature trial data.

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